St. John’s faces a lower-than-expected KenPom preseason spot as season nears

St. John’s is about a few weeks away from the start of the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season, but the preseason projection has already complicated the conversation. Yahoo Sports reported that the Red Storm received a KenPom preseason ranking that, while still positioning them among Division I programs, landed lower than many expected.

KenPom, which uses game results and efficiency modeling to estimate team quality, is frequently used by fans and analysts as an early indicator of how a team’s strengths and weaknesses might translate over a full schedule. In that framework, a preseason spot that is “lower than anticipated” generally indicates that the underlying numbers, or the way future performance is forecasted, are not as favorable as supporters might have hoped.

The other notable element from the reporting is uncertainty about the roster. St. John’s does not yet know for certain who will be in its lineup as the opener approaches, according to Yahoo Sports. That matters because preseason projections are often sensitive to continuity, minutes security, and the presence of experienced players in roles that produce consistent offensive and defensive efficiency.

For St. John’s, the preseason positioning places more weight on early nonconference play and the opening weeks of the schedule, when lineup stability tends to emerge. If the Red Storm are still finalizing who will handle key responsibilities, their initial performances can shift how quickly the team’s season storyline forms, including whether it looks like a steady uptick from November into the new year or something more volatile.

The KenPom result also frames expectations for the Big East race, where margins are often thin and matchups tend to punish teams that cannot consistently execute on either end of the floor. A lower preseason estimate does not preclude a strong conference run, but it does mean St. John’s likely needs to close the gap between what the model projects and what it sees on the court.

Looking ahead, the immediate storyline to watch is whether St. John’s can reduce lineup uncertainty in time to play its best basketball early, and whether the efficiency trends implied by KenPom begin to reflect what the coaching staff wants this season to look like. As the roster becomes clearer, the preseason projection will be easier to interpret, and any gap between expectation and performance will become more measurable.

For now, the combination of an unexpectedly modest KenPom preseason ranking and an incomplete picture of the starting lineup sets up a common but demanding preseason challenge: turning projection into production before conference play begins in earnest.