Stephen Follows Tells Locarno Pro 2026 That “Nepo Baby” Presence in Top Films May Be Bigger Than Public Estimates

Locarno Pro 2026 kicked off this week with a data-focused presentation by film industry analyst Stephen Follows, whose talk framed a central question for producers, financiers, and talent teams: how much of the most visible film culture pipeline relies on inherited industry relationships. According to coverage of the session, Follows presented his findings under the title “Fear, Lies, and the Illusion of Control,” at a moment when major festivals are increasingly used as business forums for market and development conversations, not only screenings.

The presentation’s core claim centered on a “nepo baby creative” question tied to Follows’s analysis of top films from the last century. He argued that commonly held intuitions about the prevalence of second-generation industry involvement may be wrong, and that “your guess will be too low,” with the framing presented as a corrective to what he described as a tendency to underappreciate certain structural dynamics in how films get made and who gets access to key opportunities.

Follows’s argument, as described in the report, relied on quantifiable data points rather than anecdotal observations. The emphasis was on what the numbers suggest about representation across a curated set of films, and on the gap between perception and measurement. In practical terms, the session aimed to shift audience discussion from individual cases to pattern recognition, presenting the issue as one of industry mechanics and decision-making, not simply a debate about personal merit.

Locarno Pro’s timing matters because the market side of the festival season depends on planning cycles that include rights acquisitions, packaging, and early creative commitments. By raising the question in an industry room at the start of the program, the talk placed the topic near the beginning of conversations about where projects come from, how talent is assembled, and how reputations influence early development and financing pathways.

The event’s framing also suggested a broader theme about uncertainty and control in entertainment economics. “Fear, Lies, and the Illusion of Control” was described as the session title, indicating a focus on how people interpret risk and causality in cultural industries, where reputations, track records, and networks can shape outcomes that are difficult to measure in real time. The report highlighted that Follows presented “hard truths,” according to the characterization, rather than treating the question as a purely moral or cultural contest.

While the reporting focused on Follows’s presentation and the general thrust of his data analysis, it did not enumerate every figure in the excerpted coverage. The immediate takeaway for festival-goers was that at least one prominent data analyst believes the industry conversation about second-generation influence has been leaving out key measurable elements, and that his methodology aimed to force a re-check against assumptions.

As Locarno Pro continues through its scheduled industry sessions, the talk is expected to feed into follow-on debates among executives, agents, producers, and development teams about how creative pipelines are built and evaluated. For now, the public-facing record of the session is anchored to Follows’s data framing and the specific message reported by The Hollywood Reporter: that the prevalence of “nepo baby” involvement in top-tier films may be greater than many observers expect, even if their instincts are informed by years of watching the industry.

The presentation also arrives amid a continuing industry conversation about transparency in creative opportunity and the power dynamics of established networks. Depending on how widely the methodology and data sets are cited after the session, the question raised at Locarno may become more prominent in development discussions and in how studios and financiers justify casting, hiring, and creative approvals to their internal stakeholders and, increasingly, to paying audiences.