‘Toy Story 5’ Aims for $160M, Set to Deliver the Biggest Opening of 2026, Industry Estimates Say

A key weekend projection in the U.S. box office points to major returns for Walt Disney Animation and Pixar’s “Toy Story 5,” with industry estimates placing the film’s weekend opening at about $160 million, which The Hollywood Reporter said would be the biggest opening of 2026.

The Hollywood Reporter’s box office tracking also cited a steep drop for another high-profile release, Steven Spielberg’s “Disclosure Day.” According to the report, “Disclosure Day” is expected to decline by 69% over the weekend, indicating a quick cooling after its initial surge.

The same industry summary included a third comparator, “Obsession,” which The Hollywood Reporter described as a sensation. The report said “Obsession” is projected to post a weekend total that is smaller than its opening, a pattern The industry often tracks as an indicator of audience momentum after initial release.

The projections place “Toy Story 5” at the center of the weekend’s theatergoing picture, with the $160 million figure framed by The Hollywood Reporter as the largest start of the year to date. The size of the opening matters to studios and exhibitors because first-weekend receipts can affect downstream decisions, including how broadly films are booked and how long they remain in theaters.

For “Disclosure Day,” the 69% decline reported by The Hollywood Reporter is a substantial second-week drop. Such a move typically reflects how quickly audience interest is absorbed after launch, and it can influence marketing strategy and screen allocation for the remainder of the run.

For “Obsession,” the estimate that its weekend will come in below its opening suggests continued demand that is weakening relative to the initial draw. The Hollywood Reporter’s framing points to the common retail rhythm in theatrical releases, where openings can be buoyed by marketing lift and availability, then normalize as the weekend draw changes.

All three titles are being tracked as part of the normal weekend theater window, and the figures cited by The Hollywood Reporter are presented as industry estimates for the current weekend, not audited final ticket counts.

The market implication from The Hollywood Reporter’s report is straightforward: if “Toy Story 5” indeed lands near $160 million, it will likely reinforce the studio’s theatrical expectations for the year, while the sharper declines for “Disclosure Day” and “Obsession” suggest that audience shares are shifting quickly among major releases.