U.S. energy chief says pipelines will reduce Strait of Hormuz leverage, but outside experts question timeline

The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that planned oil pipelines will, within roughly two years, make the Strait of Hormuz a less decisive factor for global energy flows, a claim that energy experts interviewed by NPR said is unlikely to happen on that timeline.

Bessent’s remarks tied the expected change to the expansion of oil transport capacity that would allow more crude to move without passing through the narrow maritime chokepoint, which has long been viewed as a strategic vulnerability for shipping and a potential pressure point for Iran and other regional actors.

NPR reported that energy analysts and researchers disagreed with the notion that the Strait of Hormuz would become “irrelevant” in two years. They pointed to the practical limits of moving large volumes of oil through new or expanded pipeline systems, including the time required to complete infrastructure and, in some cases, to ensure there is enough downstream demand and logistics capacity to actually absorb additional supply on new routes.

The experts also highlighted that even if additional pipelines come online, the Strait of Hormuz would likely remain important for other flows that are not fully replaced by pipeline routes. They described the chokepoint as a key part of global oil trade patterns rather than a lever that can be removed in a short window.

The disagreement matters for policymakers because perceptions of vulnerability can influence market behavior and government contingency planning around disruptions in the Middle East. If major oil routes are still perceived as dependent on Hormuz, prices and security planning could continue to factor in the risk of shipping interruptions.

Bessent’s timeline also underscores the link between energy infrastructure and regional security debates, as officials in Washington have increasingly argued that expanding alternate transport paths can reduce the operational impact of chokepoint threats. Outside experts cautioned that infrastructure schedules do not always translate quickly into operational substitution at scale.

With the claim tied to a roughly two-year horizon, the immediate question for governments and industry is whether newly available pipeline capacity can be brought online and used fast enough to materially change routing decisions, or whether the Strait of Hormuz will remain embedded in global supply chains for longer than the Treasury Secretary suggested.