THE APEX TIMES
In comments reported by Yahoo Finance, early Uber investor Jason Calacanis said he expects Tesla to capture about 40% of the robotaxi market, Uber about 35%, and Waymo about 15%, after buying Uber shares.
Jason Calacanis, an early investor in Uber Technologies, is laying out a scenario for how the robotaxi business could concentrate among a handful of players, with Tesla, Uber and Alphabet’s Waymo dividing most of the market.
According to comments carried by Yahoo Finance, Calacanis bought 15,000 Uber shares at about $65 each, and he set a personal price target of $120. The purchase and target were cited alongside his broader view of who he believes will win in autonomous ride-hailing, where “robotaxi” refers to self-driving vehicles that can operate without a human driver for passenger trips.
Calacanis’ framework assigns Tesla a 40% share of the autonomous vehicle market, Uber 35%, and Waymo 15%, leaving the remainder for other competitors. The way he described the split suggests he expects not only technology leadership, but also operational execution, fleet deployment, and the ability to scale service reliably across geographies.
The remarks arrive as investors and automakers continue to reassess the pace of autonomy. Robotaxi deployments require more than vehicle sensing and software, they depend on mapping, safety validation, vehicle uptime, customer access, and regulatory approvals. In that context, Calacanis’ emphasis on market share is less about near-term prototypes and more about eventual commercial rollouts.
For Tesla, the projection ties to the company’s long-running effort to commercialize driver-assistance technology and move toward full autonomy. For Uber, the bet implies that ride-hailing platforms can remain central even if the vehicles themselves are operated by autonomous systems, because the platform handles demand, pricing, matching and trip execution.
Waymo, backed by Alphabet, is singled out as the third-largest holder in Calacanis’ simplified distribution. That placement reflects the market’s focus on companies that have demonstrated autonomous operations at scale, even as timelines vary widely and deployments tend to be location-specific.
Still, the figures should be treated as forecasts, not company guidance. The Yahoo Finance report attributes the market-share breakdown to Calacanis and does not indicate that Tesla, Uber or Waymo endorsed the percentages. The article also does not provide supporting data, modeling assumptions, or time horizon, which are key for interpreting any long-range estimate of a nascent industry.
What to watch next is whether Tesla, Uber or Alphabet’s autonomous unit offers more detail on commercialization milestones, regulatory pathways, and fleet scaling plans that would support or contradict Calacanis’ expectations. Investors will likely pay close attention to any disclosures that clarify when robotaxi service could expand beyond limited markets and how economics could shake out if autonomy costs fall faster or slower than anticipated.
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