Uber bulls highlight expanding profitability, free cash flow, and a robotaxi roadmap

Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) is drawing renewed attention from investors looking beyond near-term volatility, after a bullish investment thesis argued the ride-hailing and delivery platform is compounding at scale while strengthening margins and generating substantial free cash flow. The thesis, outlined by Daan at InvestInsights and summarized by Insider Monkey, says Uber’s network effects are creating a flywheel across Mobility and Delivery, supported by product upgrades and cross-service engagement. It also frames autonomous vehicles, not as an existential threat, but as a long-term growth lever that Uber can monetize by acting as “infrastructure” for robotaxi operators.

As evidence, the thesis points to Uber’s first-quarter results. Uber reported Trips, a core usage metric defined as completed Mobility rides and Delivery orders, rising 20% year over year to 3.6 billion, driven by 17% growth in Monthly Active Platform Consumers (MAPCs) to 199 million. Gross Bookings, the dollar value of fares and deliveries before Uber’s take rate, increased 25% year over year to $53.7 billion, while Revenue grew 14% to $13.2 billion. Profitability improved as Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to $2.5 billion, and the company reported free cash flow of $2.3 billion for the quarter, calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.

The bullish note also links Uber’s profitability to monetization efforts outside traditional ride-hailing. It points to Uber One, the company’s subscription program for discounted rides and delivery perks, as a retention and repeat-use engine. In its first-quarter release, Uber said it reached 50 million Uber One members, adding that members now drive half of Gross Bookings across Mobility and Delivery. The thesis further argues Uber is expanding its “total addressable market” by stretching into adjacent services, including grocery, retail, parking reservations, hotel bookings, and advertising. Uber’s Q1 release also reiterated that it is pursuing AV projects with a “capital-efficient” approach and using AI to improve growth and productivity.

Autonomous vehicles are a central pillar of the thesis, and it is supported by Uber’s recent partner announcements. In March 2026, Uber and Rivian said they expect to deploy up to 50,000 fully autonomous Rivian R2 robotaxis, with an initial phase targeting 10,000 robotaxis and an option to purchase up to 40,000 more beginning in 2030. Uber said it expects initial commercial deployments in San Francisco and Miami in 2028 and scaling to 25 cities through 2031, and it described an investment commitment of up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, subject to milestones. In another partnership, Uber said Zoox robotaxis would be deployed via the Uber app starting in Las Vegas this summer and in Los Angeles in 2027, positioning Uber as a distribution channel for autonomous fleets.

The thesis then turns to valuation. It claims Uber trades at approximately 12 times forward free cash flow, 14 times EV/EBITDA (a common enterprise-value multiple comparing market value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), and a PEG ratio of 0.9, which is often used as a price-to-growth heuristic. Based on a projected improvement in earnings and cash flow and “moderate” multiple normalization, the note estimates a 2028 price target of $146 per share. It also cites trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $9.8 billion as part of its setup, even though Uber’s Q1 release emphasizes quarterly free cash flow rather than a trailing figure.

Even with the upbeat framing, there are key gaps that the thesis summary does not address in detail. The InvestInsights note, as reproduced in the summary, does not provide a full model of how AV economics would translate into segment-level revenue, margin expansion, and cash flows. It also does not reconcile how execution risks, such as regulatory timelines, safety performance, and deployment costs, could affect the projected timeline. Separately, Uber’s Q1 2026 guidance focused on Gross Bookings, Non-GAAP EPS, and Adjusted EBITDA for Q2, but did not disclose how much, if any, robotaxi initiatives were contributing financially in the quarter.

For what to watch next, investors may focus on whether Uber continues to sustain growth in Trips and MAPCs while protecting profitability, alongside progress in growing Uber One engagement across Mobility and Delivery. On the autonomy front, partner milestones, including the planned rollouts and regulatory approvals described in Uber’s robotaxi announcements, will likely remain the most tangible markers of whether the long-term upside embedded in the thesis is achievable. The next quarterly results should also clarify whether the company’s cash generation remains consistent as it invests in AV experiments and AI-driven productivity improvements.