UC Berkeley poll finds Californians split on proposed 5% billionaire net-worth tax set for November ballot

A new poll from the University of California, Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies indicates Californians are divided on a proposed one-time billionaire tax that would target the state’s largest private fortunes. The measure is scheduled to appear on the ballot in November, according to the survey report released Friday by the Institute.

The proposal, described in reporting on the poll, would impose a 5% tax on net worth for California’s estimated 200 billionaires. The tax is framed as one-time rather than a recurring levy, and it would apply to wealth holdings rather than wages or business income, placing the policy question squarely on how the state would measure, assess, and collect taxes tied to fluctuating asset values.

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey, released Friday, found that support and opposition among Californians are closely split, underscoring the political uncertainty around the ballot initiative heading into the fall. The report was released as California continues to debate how any tax increases would be structured and who would bear the costs.

While the poll points to a divided electorate, the practical stakes of the proposal depend on how the measure would be administered if approved. A net-worth tax requires mechanisms for valuing assets, determining eligibility, and ensuring compliance, including questions about timing, auditing, and how to handle unrealized gains tied to stocks, private companies, and other non-cash holdings.

Supporters and opponents of such proposals often focus on different concerns, including whether the tax would increase costs for the targeted households and what impact it could have on investments and economic activity. Opponents also typically raise questions about constitutional constraints and the complexity of enforcement, particularly for assets that are difficult to value or liquidate.

The next step for the initiative is the standard ballot process leading up to November. If voters approve it, California would need to implement the tax through the relevant state authority, including establishing operational rules for assessment, reporting, and enforcement. If voters reject it, the proposal would not move forward as a state tax measure during that election cycle.