USC eyes its first NCAA Tournament berth under Eric Musselman as preseason buzz builds around return of key backcourt

USC’s men’s basketball program is still chasing a milestone it has not reached under coach Eric Musselman: a return to the NCAA Tournament. The Trojans last made the field in 2023, and as the 2026-27 season approaches, a new round of preseason Top 25 expectations has intensified the focus on whether this is the season Musselman can finally deliver that first appearance in Los Angeles.

In a preseason rankings column, Fox Sports college basketball analyst Casey Jacobsen placed USC at No. 13. The projection matters because it is not merely about being “on the list,” but about how easily a team that has been outside the NCAA Tournament picture can be slotted into a tournament path once the regular season begins. USC’s recent baseline for that expectation is its 2025-26 record of 18-14, which the report notes as a reason a double-digit ranking could “comfortably” align with tournament potential if the team builds on last year’s momentum.

The same ranking grouping also highlights the competitive landscape around USC, where conference and national profiles can shift quickly. The list includes multiple Big Ten programs, with Illinois at No. 2 and Michigan at No. 3, and it references Michigan’s national-title run last season as evidence of the conference’s strength. For USC, that context is less about who wins the most games in any given year and more about the reality that tournament selection is built on résumé strength. If top-caliber teams continue to load up the rankings, USC’s margin for error in nonconference and early conference play becomes narrower.

Roster continuity is central to why USC is being discussed as a potential step forward rather than a long-shot. The report points to USC’s returning backcourt core headed into 2026-27, with guards Rodney Rice and Alijah Arenas each expected to return for their second seasons with the program. Rice is described as a leading scorer who, after playing in USC’s first six games in 2025-26, averaged 20.3 points per game before his season was cut short by a shoulder injury. Arenas is characterized as USC’s highly-touted freshman guard in the prior class, giving the Trojans a mix of production and development at the guard spots.

That combination, if it translates into consistent play over a full schedule, is the sort of profile that can stabilize late-game execution and raise a team’s ceiling. For a program trying to break a tournament drought, the guard position usually determines whether the offense can adjust when early scoring stretches disappear. Musselman’s third year becomes important here because third-year coaching cycles often correspond to cleaner rotations and more defined roles, especially for players who have already gone through one offseason and one full calendar around the system.

Even with the preseason ranking, USC’s tournament picture will ultimately hinge on what it does on the court, not what analysts pencil in ahead of time. Preseason Top 25 placements are volatile by design, and a jump from outside the tournament to inside the field typically requires more than talent. The key question for USC will be whether Rice and Arenas can function as the reliable engine of a deeper offense, and whether USC can produce the sort of wins that selection committees reward: quality nonconference games, competitiveness against strong conference opponents, and performances that do not collapse in the final stretch of the season.

What to watch next is whether preseason expectations reflect real separation when games begin. If USC’s backcourt health and continuity hold, and the Trojans convert early opportunities into signature wins, the No. 13 projection could become more than a talking point. If not, the program’s next NCAA Tournament attempt could slip again, extending the gap since 2023.