Wall Street debate over whether Apple’s foldable iPhone can justify a $400 share price

Apple shares have drawn fresh “$400” talk on Wall Street, but the argument is less about a near-term product cycle and more about whether a future foldable iPhone can change the company’s revenue mix and valuation. In a July 2 market-news piece, 24/7 Wall St. set a 12-month price target of $336.98 for Apple (AAPL), describing it as implying roughly 9% upside from $308.30 at the time of the post, and maintaining a BUY rating with high confidence.

The note’s bull case hinges on the idea that Apple’s first foldable iPhone will be a credible catalyst, even if it starts at relatively small volume. It characterizes Apple’s planned 2027 foldable iPhone as contributing about 10 million units out of a total iPhone unit base of roughly 220 million, arguing that premium pricing could still have an outsized effect on revenue and support higher expectations for the stock.

To ground that thesis, the post points to recent financial performance and shareholder returns. It says Apple has logged eight consecutive quarters of earnings-per-share (EPS) beats and cites a recent quarter with revenue of $111.18 billion and EPS of $2.01, which it says beat estimates. It also highlights iPhone revenue of $56.99 billion and a Services figure it calls an all-time record at $30.98 billion, attributing demand strength for the iPhone 17 lineup to comments by Tim Cook.

The analyst framing also emphasizes Apple’s capital return program. The post states the company authorized a fresh $100 billion buyback and increased its dividend by 4%, setting the dividend at $0.27 per share, and it describes this as Apple’s 14th straight annual dividend increase. In the same vein, it connects the stock’s momentum to continuing cash generation and appetite for repurchases.

On the other side, the note highlights what it sees as potential margin headwinds that could cap the stock’s upside. It argues that rising memory costs, tied to component supply constraints including a “ban” involving Chinese suppliers, could weigh on profitability. It also points to a Supreme Court App Store-related decision as a risk factor that could further pressure margins, depending on how app economics and policy costs evolve.

The foldable phone category matters to Apple beyond product novelty because it represents a potential upgrade path for users who may not yet need a traditional slate of iterative iPhone changes. A foldable device is typically sold at a premium price, and if Apple can place it into a mainstream upgrade cycle, investors may view it as a lever to sustain average selling prices and Services attach rates. The note’s central claim is that Apple does not need foldables to be a majority of volumes for them to matter for valuation.

Still, there are major uncertainties that the post does not fully resolve. It does not provide operational details such as Apple’s yield assumptions, exact bill-of-materials trajectory, or how quickly foldable demand would scale beyond early adopters. It also does not quantify how much of any margin compression would be offset by pricing, mix, or cost-down efforts, particularly in its discussion of memory costs and the App Store policy impact.

What to watch next is whether Apple gives concrete indicates around foldable development milestones, pricing strategy, and unit ramp timing. Even if investors are focused on a longer-dated re-rating, near-term evidence would likely include continued trends in iPhone revenue, Services growth, and the pace and size of buybacks, all of which the post treats as proof that the company can generate the cash to fund shareholder returns while it builds the next product category.