What could keep the Suns from topping their 45-win leap in 2026-27

The Suns’ 45-win finish in 2025-26 came with a notable twist: Phoenix did it while losing Jalen Green, reportedly their second-highest-paid player, for most of the season. That context is central to how expectations are being framed going into 2026-27. With a return to a more stable baseline, the team is positioned to build on last season rather than treat it like a one-off. Still, an analytical preview from Yahoo Sports argues the path to an even better record is narrower than it looks on the surface.

One of the major themes highlighted in the analysis is spacing. In the NBA, the quality of a team’s shot-making off the ball and the ability to stretch the floor can determine whether defenses have to play honest all game. If the Suns’ lineup construction does not consistently force that kind of coverage, even strong individual performances can be blunted by half-court congestion. In that framing, poor spacing becomes less about a single miss and more about whether opposing defenses can reliably shrink the court.

Roster balance is the second concern. Even with talent, the NBA is punishing when player roles overlap too much or when the team’s offensive creation leans too heavily on a limited set of matchups. The Yahoo Sports preview points to “questionable roster balance” as a reason the Suns could regress, implying that how minutes and responsibilities shake out could matter as much as raw skill. Last season’s circumstances may have produced useful combinations, but continuity can also make weaknesses more visible once opponents prepare without surprises.

A third issue in the preview is the availability of “easy wins.” Teams that overachieve one year often face a follow-up season where their opponents match up differently, game plans are sharper, and there is less room for sloppy starts to be compensated for over a long stretch. In other words, the Suns may not be able to count on the same early-season cushion that can come when the league is still adjusting to a team’s identity. If Phoenix’s margin for error tightens, the schedule’s swings can become harder to smooth.

The optimism heading into 2026-27 is rooted in continuity and additions. Yahoo Sports frames the upcoming campaign as a chance to capitalize on a more stable offseason and roster rhythm. It also references the addition of Miles Bridges and development expectations for younger players, naming Ryan Dunn, Khaman Maluach, Rasheer Fleming, and Koa Peat as part of the growth picture. The counterpoint in the analysis is that even when youth is improving, the leap from development to repeatable wins is not guaranteed, especially when the roster has to function against playoff-level defenses.

A final caution in the preview is that repeating success usually requires more than hope for improvement. In the Suns’ case, last season’s 45-win result included the significant absence of Jalen Green for most of the year, which means Phoenix’s baseline ceiling and floor can both be harder to pin down. If the team is now healthier and more complete, the question becomes whether it can translate that completeness into consistent offense and a lineup that stays effective from one matchup to the next. In the West, where playoff contenders rarely allow repeated nights of the same schematic mistakes, that translation is often the difference between a second-round ceiling and a breakthrough.

What to watch next is whether Phoenix’s lineup choices resolve the spacing and balance issues raised in the preview, and whether the young core makes the kind of leap that affects game plans rather than just box scores. If the Suns’ roles are defined in a way that creates cleaner looks and sustains pace across lineups, the 45-win benchmark can become a floor. If not, regression may not require a collapse, only a series of close games that swing the other way as opponents tighten up. For now, this is less a prediction than a reminder that one strong season rarely repeats itself automatically.