What matters most as the Bills host the Jets in Week 10

The Buffalo Bills enter their Week 10 meeting with the New York Jets looking to keep riding momentum after two of their biggest wins of the season, and their preparation centers on three matchup questions outlined by Bills insider Chris Brown.

First, the Bills are weighing a return to heavy rushing. Buffalo totaled a season-high 44 rush attempts in a Monday night win at Minnesota, led by James Cook’s 107 yards on 31 carries, and Brown’s read is that Joe Brady’s offense should lean on the run again against a Jets defense that has tightened its ground numbers recently.

Brown points to a shift in New York’s run defense over the last four outings, when the Jets have surrendered just over 140 rushing yards per game, moving their ranking to 26th in the league. He also cites Buffalo’s own matchup advantage, noting that Cook is fifth in the NFL in rushing with 814 yards, and that the Jets will be the second-worst run defense Cook has faced this season (only the Raiders are lower).

The second storyline is ball security versus a Jets unit built to force turnovers. New York has forced 13 fumbles through nine games, the most in the league, and recovered nine of them, also a league high. Brown highlights rookie pass rusher and top draft pick David Bailey as a key reason, saying Bailey is tied for the league lead with five forced fumbles and has been especially effective on strip sacks.

Third, both teams’ red zone profiles could decide the outcome. Brown notes the Jets are often stalling inside the 20, going 0-for in the red zone in four of nine games and ranking 31st in red zone touchdown efficiency at 40.7%. He also ties New York’s ongoing struggles to defense in the red zone, saying the Jets have allowed 22 touchdowns in that area, third-most in the NFL, and that opponents have converted recent red zone trips at a high rate.

For Buffalo, Brown frames that as a favorable contrast: the Bills have a 66.7% red zone offense rate (seventh in the league) and an improved red zone defense that, in the period referenced, has allowed three touchdowns on the opponent’s last nine red zone possessions.