With less than 130 days to midterms, The Hill highlights five Senate races seen as most likely to flip

The Senate races Democrats would need to win to take control have become the focus of new inside-the-cycle reporting, with less than 130 days remaining until the November midterms. In an assessment published July 1, The Hill identified five states as the contests most likely to flip, citing shifting political dynamics after primary results and other developments that have reshaped assumptions about several incumbent or open-seat races.

The Hill’s list includes North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, Michigan and Alaska. Democrats, under the math laid out in the report, would need to flip four seats to capture the Senate majority, a goal described as challenging given the current map and the degree of competition in each listed state.

North Carolina was framed as among Democrats’ most realistic opportunities, in part because the state has continued to trend more competitive while also featuring an open-seat dynamic. The report points to the retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and describes Tillis as using the remainder of his time in office to report to colleagues that Democrats intend to benefit from what the report characterizes as less popular moves by the Trump administration.

In North Carolina’s contest to succeed Tillis, The Hill says former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is polling ahead of Michael Whatley, the chair of the Republican National Committee during the 2024 election. The report cites a Catawba College/YouGov poll showing Cooper leading Whatley by 14 points, attributing at least part of the gap to Democrats’ improved standing in the state.

Outside North Carolina, The Hill’s briefing links the overall Senate battleground to concerns that Republicans face with voter dissatisfaction and national conditions. The report says Senate Republicans have shown wariness about the midterms in how some vulnerable senators have broken with their party on votes and by what it describes as frustrations with legislative “curveballs” from the White House as Republicans have tried to align messaging around legislation they could campaign on.

The report also says Democrats see potential upside from rising costs and from public reaction to U.S. involvement in the war in Iran. It adds that primary results have contributed to campaign and handicapping shifts, including in states where the report says the partisan outlook has moved from more secure Republican expectations toward a closer “lean” environment.

The Hill’s assessment is not a formal election projection, but it underscores which contests are currently most emphasized by political operatives and election analysts as the midterm timetable tightens. With the November election continuing to approach, attention is likely to remain on whether each of the five seats can sustain momentum into general-election campaign season, particularly in races where incumbency is absent or where presidential-year politics are filtering into state-level support.